A Year of Unveiling Success: An Inside Look at My Private Stock Portfolio
It has been nearly a year since I launched a Patreon alongside a friend, offering an exclusive look into my private stock market portfolio and the rationale behind my investments. In this article, I will reveal six of the companies in our portfolio that we believe are wise investments for the next six months, along with important updates to the Patreon itself.
First, let's examine the portfolio's performance since I began investing in August 2013. I have surpassed both the S&P 500 and the DJ World indices by a significant margin, with the difference amounting to approximately 200% and 300%, respectively. According to my broker, my performance stands at 16%, but when I calculate it using Internal Rate of Return (IRR), it is even higher. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has achieved an 11% return, and the DJ World has reached 6.5%. These figures are all net of fees and taxes.
Despite the challenges of 2022, which saw small and micro-caps underperforming and value investing facing headwinds, we managed to outperform. I have gained 17.4% or 18.5%, depending on whether you trust my broker's or my calculations, while the S&P 500 has increased by 15.2%, and the DJ World has risen by 11.7%. Although we are satisfied with our absolute performance, we recognize that it has come at a cost of increased effort, which is now 15 times greater than in the past.
Moving forward, we will evaluate the portfolio less frequently but will conduct a major overhaul every six months. This approach should yield similar performance while freeing up time and making it easier for followers to keep track of our activities. We will also reveal approximately half of the portfolio, so potential Patreon subscribers know what to expect.
Now, let's explore six of the companies in our portfolio that we anticipate holding for the next six months:
1. Carum: A Swedish provider of healthcare services for the elderly, Carum offers hardware devices and connected response centers in Sweden, Norway, and the UK. We expect Carum to continue growing in high single digits, with a Ro of around 30%. We rate Carum's business quality as a 4 out of 5 due to its non-cyclical nature, recurring revenues, wide customer base, and market leadership in Sweden and the UK.
2. Zumies: An American retailer of skate fashion, Zumies has 597 stores in the US, 47 in Canada, 87 in Europe, and 25 in Australia. We anticipate mid-single-digit growth, with a Ro of around 20%. Although the company has been taking a hit due to weak customer demand, we see potential for a turnaround, as it has no debt and a substantial cash reserve.
3. Witchen: A Polish company that manufactures, markets, and sells suitcases, bags, clothing, and accessories under the brand name Witchen, it has an impressive growth story orchestrated by its owner-operators. We expect low double-digit growth from 2024 onwards.
4. Comic: A Finnish retail company that sells used cars, Comic acquires cars from various sources, performs minor maintenance, and resells them through its network of showrooms in Finland, Sweden, and Germany. We have given Comic a business quality rating of 2.5 out of 5 due to its intense competition and cyclicality.
5. Ivi: A Finnish retail company that sells beer, Ivi is the market leader in a bunch of countries in a business that is non-cyclical and characterized by very slow rate of change competition-wise. We expect Ivi to continue gaining market share using history as our best proxy for the future.
6. On the Beach Group: An online retailer of beach holidays primarily in the UK, On the Beach sells vacation bundles and has no Capital requirements. We expect the company to achieve a 6% growth rate with near-infinite Ro.
To access the full portfolio, including position sizes and longer write-ups on our portfolio companies, visit our Patreon page. The price is now $10 per month, down from $33. Check it out and join us on this exciting journey.